European Union Foreign Exchange

USD/JPY bulls still alive as it extends gains to one-month high

USD/JPY continues to rise above the 113.40 key level and is set to complete the fifth bullish day in a row today, stretching its upward tendency to a fresh high.

According to the MACD oscillator, positive momentum could push for further gains in the short-term as the indicator picks up steam above its trigger line. The RSI is also advancing in the positive territory. The 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) are sloping up, following the price action.

In the positive scenario, where the price continues to expand above yesterday’s one-month high of 113.81, the pair could jump towards the 114.55 resistance level, achieved on October 3. If the market manages to overcome that area, traders could look for resistance at the 115.50 barrier, taken from the peak on March 2017.

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A reversal to the downside could stall at the 40- and then at the 20-SMAs, which hover near the 112.80 and the 112.62 levels respectively. Further below, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 104.60 to 114.55, around 112.20, could also provide support. Any violation below this point could potentially trigger a sell-off in the market, probably leading below the long-term ascending trend line until the 111.40 support barrier.

Regarding the long-term picture, the bullish outlook has built up as USD/JPY retains bullish tendency, above the rising trend line, which has been standing since March 26; a dive below this line could shift the sentiment into a neutral and then to a bearish one.

by Melina Deltas, XM Investment Research Desk

Melina joined XM in December 2017 as an Investment Analyst in the Research department. She can clearly communicate market action, particularly technical and chart pattern setups. Her technically focused method looks mainly at price action across multiple time frames to capture big moves that develop over the years. She has more than 3 years of experience in analyzing financial markets, specializing in forex, indices, and commodities.

Melina studied Pure Mathematics at Lancaster University and has a Master’s Degree in Monetary and Financial Economics from the University of Cyprus. Currently, she is an associate member of the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe).

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