EUR/USD movement sits at unchanged levels as we wrap up the US session. Highs of 1.1284 were achieved, though the H4 candles ‘appear’ to be respecting an AB=CD (black arrows) bearish pattern around 1.1275.
Continued selling from this point has the 1.1250 neighbourhood to target, which, as you can see, has proved a reasonably impressive resistance in recent trading, therefore, a response from this number as support is likely in store. To the upside, nevertheless, the psychological mark 1.13 is in sight, followed closely by supply at 1.1331/1.1310 (yellow).
On more of a broader perspective, weekly flow remains within the parapets of demand at 1.1119-1.1295, with the candles attempting to breakout of the zone. Overall, the long-term trend on the weekly timeframe continues to face a southerly direction, nonetheless, with traders’ crosshairs now likely fixed on 1.1176 as the next viable support: the 2019 yearly low.
Leaving demand at 1.1075-1.1171 (an area glued to the underside of the current weekly demand) unchallenged on the daily timeframe, Monday’s daily candle was certainly full of vigour. As zealous as the buyers were, though, upside somewhat diminished Tuesday and consequently formed a bearish pin-bar formation. The next port of call to the upside, however, has channel resistance (taken from the high 1.1569) in view.
1.1250 on the H4 timeframe is a point of interest for a potential short-term long today, given it also fuses closely with a H4 38.2% (taken from the AB=CD legs A-D) Fibonacci support at 1.1240 (considered the first take-profit target from the AB=CD formation). In the event we fail to push higher from 1.1250, the second possible support in view is April’s opening level at 1.1221 and the 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1.1223 (considered the second take-profit target from the AB=CD pattern).
Today’s data points: ECB Main Refinancing Rate; ECB Monetary Policy Statement; ECB Press Conference; US CPI m/m; US Core CPI m/m; FOMC Member Quarles Speaks; FOMC Meeting Minutes.
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